Prediction market basics · India
What is a prediction market?
A plain-English guide to prediction market basics for Indian traders: how contracts work, how prices become probabilities, when to exit, and how to start on Moon.com with code PAISA.
Core concepts
A prediction market is a market for opinions
Instead of buying a share of a company, you buy a contract that pays out if a future event happens. The price is the market's best estimate of how likely that event is.
Yes/No contracts settle at 100 or 0
A 'Yes' contract in a prediction market pays 100 if the event happens and 0 if it does not. If the market price is 62, traders collectively believe there is about a 62% chance of it happening.
You can trade out before the event ends
You do not have to hold until the result is known. If you bought at 35 and the price is now 70, you can sell for a profit before the market settles — or cut a loss early.
Price is probability, but only roughly
A 70 price implies about 70% chance, but fees, spreads and trader bias can push it away from the true odds. Your job is to find prices where you disagree for a reason you can explain.
Fees eat into small edges
Every entry and exit has a cost. A strategy that looks profitable on paper can lose money after fees, especially if you trade often or on markets with wide spreads.
Risk is real and you can lose everything
Prediction markets are not insured like a bank deposit. Only trade money you can afford to lose completely, and cap each idea at 1-2% of your account.
How to start trading prediction markets
- 01
Read the crypto basics and trading basics guides if those topics are new.
- 02
Open a Moon.com account with code PAISA to get 3.5% lifetime rakeback on fees.
- 03
Pick one market you already follow — sport, elections, crypto prices or macro data.
- 04
Paper-trade or use tiny positions for your first two weeks while you learn the interface.
- 05
Write your entry, exit and stop-loss reasoning before you click buy.
- 06
Review your trades weekly to see whether your process, not just luck, produce the result.
Common questions
Is prediction market trading legal in India?
Prediction markets operate globally, but Indian law around them is unclear and can change. Check Moon.com's terms for your country and speak to a qualified professional if you are unsure before depositing.
How much money do I need to start?
A few thousand rupees is enough to learn the mechanics. Risk only 1-2% of that per trade so you can survive the learning phase.
What markets are good for beginners?
Start with events you already follow closely — a sport you watch, an election you read about, or a crypto price you track. Your edge comes from knowing the subject, not from fancy math.
Can I use Indian rupees directly?
Moon.com is crypto-funded, so you will need stablecoins to deposit. The crypto basics guide explains how to get started safely.
What is the PAISA code for?
Code PAISA gives you 3.5% lifetime rakeback on Moon.com trading fees. It must be used at account creation and cannot be added later.
Get the highest standing rakeback
Use code PAISA when you create your Moon.com account and 3.5% of every trading fee comes back to you automatically — for life.